OPEC keeps forecasts for oil demand, economic growth unchanged

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment of 2.2 mb/d (million barrels per day), according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.

The MOMR – April 2024, released on Thursday, noted that slight adjustments were made to the 1Q-24 data, with a slight upward revision in OECD Europe and some non-OECD data, reflecting better-than-expected performance in oil demand data.

“This increase was offset by a downward revision to Africa in 1Q-24 and the Middle East in the first three quarters,” it reads.

Accordingly, the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) is projected to expand by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y (year-on-year). The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d. The world economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent
, respectively, the report pointed out.

In the United States, economic growth for 2024 is revised up slightly to 2.1 percent, as the healthy momentum from 2H-23 is expected to carry into 2024, while the forecast for 2025 remains at 1.7 percent.

The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone remains at 0.5 percent for 2024 and 1.2 percent for 2025.

Japan’s economic growth forecast is also unchanged at 0.8 percent in 2024 and one percent in 2025. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth forecast remains at 4.8 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025. India’s economic growth forecast is unchanged at 6.6 percent for 2024 and 6.3 percent for 2025.

Brazil’s economic growth forecast remains at 1.6 percent for 2024, and 1.9 percent for 2025. The ongoing robust performance of Russia’s economy leads to upward revisions for both the 2024 and 2025 growth forecasts, now standing at two percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Regarding crude oil price movements, the report said the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased b
y USD 2.99 or 3.7 percent in March, m-o-m, to average USD 84.22/b. Oil futures prices averaged higher, with the ICE Brent front-month contract rising by USD 2.95, or 3.6 percent, m-o-m, to USD 84.67/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract up by USD 3.80, or 5.0 percent, m-o-m, to average at USD 80.41/b. The DME Oman front-month contract rose by USD 3.30, or 4.1 percent, m-o-m, to settle at USD 84.25/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed further by 85?S to average USD 4.26/b.

The market structures of oil futures prices strengthened and remained in backwardation as money managers turned increasingly bullish about oil.

Source: Kuwait News Agency

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