Muqtada al-Sadr remains one of Iraq\u2019s most influential political figures and plays a pivotal role when it comes to the country\u2019s future. He is currently considered the kingmaker, but it remains unclear if he can form a government with stability.<\/P>
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In the latest elections, al-Sadr\u2019s party obtained 70 of a total of 329 parliamentary seats \u2013 a significant increase compared with the result of 2018, when his movement won 54 seats.<\/P>
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Despite this election result, al-Sadr did not run as a candidate for Iraq\u2019s prime ministership.<\/P>
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The reason is relatively simple and founded in al-Sadr\u2019s political strategy, Ruba Ali Al-Hassani, postdoctoral researcher at Lancaster University & Project SEPAD, told Al Jazeera.<\/P>
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\u201cSadr\u2019s strategy to maintain followership is his claim to be a reformer. Using this claim, he has supported the Tishreen\/October Movement for months until Iran called on him to withdraw this support,\u201d said Al-Hassani.<\/P>
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\u201cHis flip-flopping on this particular matter may have cost him some followers, but for the most part, his followership is blindly loyal and truly believes in his image as a reformer. On this basis, I can see Sadr avoiding the premiership to maintain his claim to reform. His party also is strategic in its alliances. In the 2018 election, it allied with the Communist Party of Iraq to maintain this reform title.\u201d<\/P>
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\u201cThis is all ironic, considering that he has had Sadrists in previous cabinets holding ministries such as the very deteriorating Ministry of Health while claiming to bring about reform,\u201d Al-Hassani added.<\/P>
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The questions around his persona have not had a significant impact on his popularity, however.<\/P>
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\u201cBy falsely claiming to boycott the election in the late summer, he won leverage because all the politicians who would seek legitimacy in the election needed him to participate. This was a smart move, so when Sadr did officially \u2018rejoin\u2019 the elections, we learned that he never really intended to boycott, as his party had been mobilising in the meantime with a mobile app, voter card registration, etc,\u201d said Al-Hassani.<\/P>
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While al-Sadr\u2019s parties obtained the most seats and thus the ability to form the next government, he still faces complex encumbrances, particularly ideological ones, Al-Hassani noted.<\/P>
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\u201cWith some Iran-backed parties like Fatah, threatening violence unless they get the vote recount which they demand, government-formation will be a challenge. Sadr, with his own militia, Saraya al-Salam, can fight Iran-backed units of the PMF but would rather not. Instead, he has been calling for calm.\u201d<\/P>
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\u2018Taking sole responsibility\u2019<\/P>
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In terms of what the government will most likely look like, Al-Hassani considered one scenario in particular to be the most conceivable.<\/P>
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\u201cSadr will most likely need to enter into an agreement with Fatah and its partners, albeit reluctantly. With that said, there is a greater chance in him forming an alliance with [Nouri] Maliki, his former foe.\u201d<\/P>
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\u201cWhatever happens next in Iraq will need Sadr\u2019s approval as in the past,\u201d she added.<\/P>
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However, any coalition al-Sadr may or may not be able to form is likely to have an adverse effect on his own party, Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at Century International and director of the Shia Politics Working Group, told Al Jazeera.<\/P>
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\u201cSadr claims that the next government will be a Sadrist one and the prime minister a staunch Sadrist and it may become a reality, but other partners will be needed to form a government and the risk of taking sole responsibility for government failures may mean that he accepts a coalition that reduces the Sadrist identity of the government,\u201d he said.<\/P>
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\u2018Significant base\u2019<\/P>
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Al-Sadr is the son of Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Muhammad Muhammad-Sadiq al-Sadr, a Shia dignitary who was politically active against the former leader Saddam Hussein, which he paid with his life in 1999.<\/P>
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\u201cThe Sadrist base is significant in Baghdad and the southern provinces because it represents a Shia underclass that struggled during the previous government but viewed Muhammad al-Sadr as a religious authority who cared for them and preached to them when no one else dared to. This base continues to feel marginalised today, and al-Sadr appeals to them as the heir to his father\u2019s position, but also as they feel he is their voice against all other political and religious factions,\u201d said Jiyad.<\/P>
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In addition, al-Sadr is also deeply woven into the power structure of the Iraqi state. His confidants sit in government offices, act as vice ministers and in managerial positions.<\/P>
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After the US toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, al-Sadr and his supporters opposed the intervention force. His supporters inflicted painful losses on US troops. As a result, al-Sadr became one of the most wanted men in Iraq.<\/P>
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In recent times he has also increasingly turned against Iran\u2019s influence. \u201cHe does attempt to deviate from Iran\u2019s goals in Iraq, yet is influenced by Iran from time to time,\u201d Al-Hassani noted.<\/P>
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Hence, al-Sadr does not seem to have a clear strategy towards Iran in the future.<\/P>
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\u201cWe can expect Sadr to flip flop on some issues and to distance himself from Iran while still maintaining some ties with it. His leverage is in his unpredictability, and that can be a psychological weapon against his political counterparts. Of course, Iran will find a way to influence the government formation process to ensure that parties like Fatah maintain their power,\u201d said Al-Hassini.<\/P>
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Religious influences have also played a role in al-Sadr\u2019s popularity. While Shia, he has by no means excluded Sunni and continues to advocate a non-denominational position.<\/P>
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\u201cUnlike Fatah and other parties, Sadr does not rely on sectarian rhetoric in his campaigning. Instead, he runs on a populist note to gain more support. He is willing to join forces in cross-denominational alliances, and this gives his positionality greater power,\u201d Al-Hassani said.<\/P>
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With that being said, political parties in Iraq remain mostly denominational, and it may take many years for new parties who focus on issues above identity to become dominant, Jiyad noted.<\/P>
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\u2018Double game\u2019<\/P>
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Al-Sadr also knew how to leverage the protests in the country when he supported the demonstrators.<\/P>
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He has presented himself as the tribune of the people and spearhead of the resistance against oppression, corruption and other abuses. All of this gave him a high degree of legitimacy in the eyes of his followers. However, here, too, a double game is played, said Al-Hassani.<\/P>
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\u201cDuring the Tishreen protests, his \u2018deputy\u2019 directly incited violence against protesters in Nasiriya and praised the violence afterwards. When we discuss today, we must not forget his threat to activists and protesters.<\/P>
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\u201cSadr is by no means innocent, nor is he a man of the people as he claims to be,\u201d Al-Hassani added.<\/P>
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With the violent suppression of the protests, so too were the hopes of an end to the corruption and the grievances connected with it. Hopes for a united Iraq with a robust civil society were also severely dampened. All of this has contributed to the heightened volatility in the country, but the origins of the continuing crisis remain elsewhere.<\/P>
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\u201cWhat made the situation volatile is the violence practised by state and non-state armed groups: the assassinations, kidnappings, open murders of protesters in broad daylight. Free speech in Iraq is under dire threat. Many activists have had to flee either to the Kurdish Region of Iraq or outside the country. There is a lack of employment opportunities, a deteriorating healthcare system during the pandemic, and deteriorating infrastructure, not to mention social issues that result from all this, such as domestic violence, drug addiction, a rise in suicide rates, etc,\u201d said Al-Hassani.<\/P>
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\u201cAt the moment, the volatility rests in the threats of violence and fears of escalation. It remains up to political winners like Sadr and behind-the-scenes political agreements to determine what happens next,\u201d she added.<\/P>
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Whoever becomes the new head of state in Iraq, it will be harder for al-Sadr and his party to stand in the centre of power moving forward \u2013 and at the same time to position himself as the leader of a movement against the establishment. After all, to govern means to make decisions.<\/P>
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Source: National News Agency<\/P>
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Muqtada al-Sadr remains one of Iraq\u2019s most influential political figures and plays a pivotal role when it comes to the country\u2019s future. He is currently considered the kingmaker, but it remains unclear if he can form a government with stability.In the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1781,2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n